New research has suggested that the global output of carbon into the atmosphere could stop rising, or even fall, this year. If this were to happen, it would be the first time that it has occurred at the same time as growth in the global economy.
One of the driving factors behind this change is thought to be the reduced amount of coal that it is being burnt in China. The report also states that there has been an increase in the amount of renewable energy technology that is being used around the world.
However, it is not all good news. The scientists behind the report have said that they believe that the dip in emissions will be temporary; once the emerging economies begin to develop they expect that emissions will be on the rise again.
The report was published by the Nature Climate Change journal and was shown to the COP21 summit in Paris. It stated that the global release of carbon from fuels such as gas, oil and coal will be down by 0.6% this year.
In 2014 global emissions increased by the exact same percentage.
In the last 15 years, the world’s total carbon output has risen constantly by an annual rate of 2-3%. The decline in carbon emissions has coincided with global economic growth of 3% in the last two years.
The scientist who led the statistical analysis, Prof Corinne Le Quere, said:
“We’re expecting a stalling in emissions, possibly even a little decrease,”
“The main cause is from decreased coal use in China. It’s restructuring its economy, but there is also a contribution from the very fast growth in renewable energy worldwide, and this is the most interesting part: can we actually grow renewable energy enough to offset the coal use elsewhere?”
The research stated that China is still the highest contributor global emissions; it accounts for 27% of total worldwide carbon output. Its coal use has declined in recent times with its economy slowing. This has happened at the same time as the public have become increasingly concerned over the levels of pollutions in its cities.
In spite of this slight dip, Professor Le Quere believes that we have not yet reached the peak of global emissions.
“As the emerging economies are mostly based on coal, as they grow we are expecting a restart in the emissions,”.
“And in the industrial economies like in the UK, where emissions are going down, the decrease is relatively modest, mostly 1-2%. We would be looking for a much faster decrease than that to offset the growth in the developing countries.”
In 2014, India was reported to be the fourth highest contributor to global emissions. It is believed that its current carbon output now matches that of China back in 1990.
Prof Dabo Guan, from the University of East Anglia, said:
“The learning curve took China about 20 years to achieve this current level of efficiency.”
“If everything moves to India without significant energy structure improvements then emissions will significantly grow. We have already seen the Indian emissions take off in the last couple of years.”
It is thought that this dip in emissions could be a sign of things to come but only if a strong agreement is reached in Paris.
Professor Le Quere went on:
“To deal with climate change we need emissions to go to zero – and we are now talking about zero growth and not zero emissions – so we are still a long, long way from that.”
“It could begin to look like a peak in emissions after Paris if the agreement is very strong.”
